Portfolio monitor — monthly dashboard

Valued at 30 October 2026 · holdings per the 31 August 2026 statement · all 14 marks on published prices. The latest period runs from 25 September 2026 to 30 October 2026.

Total value: $983,537; invested $908,611 · net cash $74,926
Oct (invested): −1.0%; −$9k · total −0.9%
Sep (invested): −1.8%; −$16k · total −1.6%
vs cost: −3.3%; −$31k on a cost base of $940k
Net cash: 7.6%; $74,926 per the statement

Monthly change by sleeve, and the year to date

Bars: monthly change in invested value by sleeve, $ thousand, back-chained from the latest marks through the monthly return rows. Line: cumulative year-to-date return (+0.7% to 30 October 2026). January–June are proxied from fund and benchmark series; July–October use fund-level data.

Bars (left axis): monthly change in invested value by sleeve, $ thousand. Line (right axis): cumulative year-to-date return. *September to the 25th; †October from 25 September to 30 October.

Equal-scale monthly returns

The invested portfolio, then each sleeve, on one scale. Grey bars mark negative months.

Invested portfolio

Oct −1.0%

Australian equities

Oct −4.8%

Global equities

Oct −0.3%

Property & infrastructure

Oct +4.2%

Alternatives

Oct +0.7%

October 2026 in brief

The month's headlines; edit them on the Month-end marks page.

AI capex scare: Alphabet −12.6% on 29 Oct (its worst day on record) after a Q3 miss and US$51.4bn of capex; Intel −29% on 30 Oct. Nasdaq −5.3%, its worst month in over a year; the semiconductor index −15%.
Perennial −16.3% in October after −4.3% in September as gold fell to a 12-month low (−6% in Oct) and ASX materials lost 6% — the portfolio's largest detractor, and the +2.0% September estimate is corrected.
Oil shock: Brent +11–13% to ~US$114–118 on strikes on Saudi infrastructure and Hormuz threats; energy the standout sector.
RBA hiked to 4.60% on 29 Sep; Q3 trimmed-mean CPI 3.7% y/y has a 3 Nov hike ~85–90% priced. US Fed held 3.75–4.00% on 28 Oct with two hawkish dissents; the US 10-year fell from 5.29% to 4.94% on a late-month flight to safety.
ASX 200 +1.35% on rotation — Utilities +10.4%, Financials +9.2%, Health +9.0%, Materials −6.0%; Small Ordinaries ≈ −6.5%. AUD +0.9% to 70.4 US cents.
Emerging markets −8% (Taiwan and Korea chips): Ashmore −6.6% on its published price. Langdon +4.6% and Lazard +6.9% led; MQAE went ex an ~8c distribution.
All fourteen funds are now on published prices; six (First Sentier, Macquarie Small, Lazard, Barwon, Ashmore, MFS) via InvestSMART exit prices — verify against the managers' own pages.

Scenario summary — probability-weighted

Read each line as, for example, a 35 per cent chance of −$122k over 12 months on the 30 October 2026 base.

Scenario	Prob.	Impact	Expected
A: AI bubble burst	35%	−$122k	−$43k
B: US dollar decline	25%	+$10k	+$2k
B2: US dollar spike	15%	−$22k	−$3k
C: General downturn	25%	−$162k	−$40k

Probabilities are subjective planning weights, not forecasts. The scenarios overlap — an AI bust would very likely also deliver the general downturn — so the expected values must not be summed; the remaining probability is the muddle-through base case.

Watch next

RBA on 3 Nov (a hike ~85–90% priced) · Perennial's drawdown (−20% over two months; closed fund, trims one-way) · hyperscaler capex guidance and AI-debt spreads after Alphabet's −12.6% day · the US midterms · the pending-cash settlement still carried from 31 August and the MQAE/Talaria distributions not yet in cash.

Figures net of fees. Marks: 14 of 14 on published prices to 30 October 2026; cash and quantities per the 31 August 2026 statement (pending cash of −$174,121 carried; CMA interest not accrued; MQAE and Talaria distributions ex October not yet in cash). Scenario figures and probabilities are modelled estimates. Full analysis on the Performance, Holdings and Scenarios pages.

Analysis and modelling for discussion, not personal financial advice.